The Way To identify value in your bets? That’s the big question. My friend, Alex Napier who operates the very best Bet fantastic online soccer website, has asked me to write this article to explain how bookmakers’ percentages are calculated and the way they offer a guide to assessment of value in the odds on offer. He has asked me to look-at soccer betting, where, due to the few possible outcomes (three choices – win, lose or draw) the odds offered are short in any event.

A perfectly “balanced book” where the odds offered exactly reflect the opportunity of each team winning or the draw would produce a total of 100.00%. Theoretically the bookmaker will profit by the total percentage on the match less 100.00%. In the above table bookmaker 1 should profit by 11.89% of turnover on the match and bookmaker 2 by 11.23%. At first sight there does not appear to be much between them but when we compare the theoretical profit of each the margin on the bookmaker 1 odds (i.e. 111.89 – 100.00 = 11.89%) is 5.84% higher than the 11.23% margin on the bookmaker 2 odds! Where the odds on offer produce a theoretical profit for the bookmaker the book is said to be “over round”. The bookmaker 1 book is over round by 11.89% and the bookmaker 2 book by 11.23%.

Where the odds on offer total less than 100.00%, which never actually occurs with the odds provided by any person bookmaker as they would in theory be sure to lose on the event, they are “under round” . The losing percentage will be 100.00% less the total odds percentage. Not surprisingly this does not happen. Individual bookmakers do not offer odds on the possible outcomes that would give them a loss. What does happen, although very infrequently, is the fact that the odds offered by a selection of bookmakers can vary greatly to the extent you could find a combination where those for the 3 possible outcomes are under round. It means that you can bet on all three possibilities – win, lose and draw – and provided you allocate your total stake within the correct proportion you is likely to make a profit of the percentage by that you can bet at under round odds.

Identifying value

From the above mentioned data it’s fairly obvious that the 4 – 1 offered by bookmaker 1 in respect of the home team winning will be the best price, there is absolutely no difference in the odds offered for the draw but bookmaker 2 offers the top odds for the away win. The question then arises, which is the greatest value? Obviously the 20.00% offered by bookmaker 1 on the home win is the lowest percentage so could be the best value, but this really is too simplistic. There must be a yardstick to measure the odds against. That is your own assessment or your advised assessment of the chance of each outcome. If you give each possibility your own percentage rating you can compare this with the bookmaker odds percentage to establish where the value lies. How you study the prospects of each outcome is just not for this article. It deserves more comprehensive treatment than can be given here where we are dealing with bookmakers’ margins and value bets.

Assuming that the true reflection of the chances on the above mentioned match were home win 20% (bookmaker 1 had that about right and bookmaker 2 was under priced), a 20% chance of a draw (although these were the bookmakers offering the very best odds on the draw they were still under priced) and also a 60% chance of an away win (where bookmaker 2 quotes a price that gives a lower percentage chance so offers value) consideration should get to an away win bet with bookmaker 2.

Stake allocation

There may be occasions when it is crucial to allocate your stake between different outcomes. This might be the case where a selection of bookmakers odds produce an under round opportunity or where there is a strong reason to include 2 of the three possible outcomes so it’s essential to allocate the stake between them. Within the illustration below the odds happen to be exaggerated. It is rather seldom in reality that an under round opportunity arises however the illustration is the best one to show how exactly to use percentages.

It is generally obvious which bookmaker is or bookmakers are offering the most effective odds. All you’ll need do is compare them. Identifying value is the one other matter. Because of this you need to calculate the odds percentages to compare with your own, or your advised, perception or assessment of the probability of each outcome. By comparing the available percentages with your assessment you can identify where the value lies and make your selections accordingly – and maybe now and again identify a no lose position where a selection of the odds offered by the many bookmakers produce an under round position! Disciplined usage of percentages should form a significant part of your strategy in identifying value within the odds offered and contributing to your betting profits.